JANUARY 5 2017 OKLAHOMA SNOW PREDICTIONS SERIES
The festival is featured by main theme parks - Sun Island Snow Sculpture Expo, Ice and Snow Amusement World, Zhaolin Park Ice Lantern Fair, as well as grand opening ceremony, fireworks display and a series of theatrical performances, ice snow activities in and more venues around ice city Harbin. However, the effect of SAM is expected to be minimal during the summer periods as it mostly impacts winter rainfall systems which will move pole-wards in summer and are unlikely to impact the country.The 33rd Harbin International Ice and Snow Sculpture Festival opens with a theme "Ice Snow Joy Ode, Meet in Harbin" on January 4 in 2017.
It has been noted that this current state of SAM is as a result of stratospheric influence which has become dominant and therefore acted to dynamically couple with the troposphere. 2.3 Southern Annular Mode The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has recently been in a negative phase in the last few weeks, and the forecast indicate a further weakening in the coming weeks. The IOD, both tropical and subtropical, can enhance moisture transport towards the continent during positive phases and degrade the transport during negative phases. 2.2 Indian Ocean Dipole The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) forecasts indicate neutral conditions during summer and is not expected to have any influence in this period. A La Niña event typically enhances rainfall activities over the summer rainfall areas of South Africa. Forecasts suggest that ENSO will remain in this phase, with at least a weak La Niña expected to develop during early and mid-summer.
JANUARY 5 2017 OKLAHOMA SNOW PREDICTIONS DRIVERS
Discussion: State of Climate Drivers 2.1 El Niño Southern Oscillation Observations show that ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is continuing towards a La Niña phase and is currently starting a potential La Niña cycle. The South African Weather Service will continue (to monitor and provide updates) its dissemination of any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.Ģ 2. Similar with the above mentioned flood events, hot and cold episodes can unfortunately not be forecasted deterministically.
The south western parts of the country is expected to have higher temperatures on average. This is due to the higher than normal number of rainfall days expected over the summer rainfall areas. Lower temperatures on average are also expected during the coming summer over the summer rainfall areas. It is advised that early warning systems from the South African Weather Service be followed throughout the summer season. no indication of intensity and timing during the season can be given), above-normal rainfall seasons are usually accompanied by a higher frequency of flood events during an areas main rainfall season.
Even though forecasting of floods at a seasonal time-scale is not deterministically possible (i.e. The early and mid-summer forecasts indicate a typical La Niña state effect, with above-normal rainfall expected during the Nov-Dec-Jan and Dec-Jan-Feb seasons over the summer rainfall areas. 1 Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Date issued: Oct 26, Overview The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to develop towards a La Niña state, and is expected to be in at least a weak La Niña state throughout the summer period.
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